Restaurant Trade Area Research

First, let it be said that my usage of nearly ALL of the restaurants has already assumed the `new normal’ of the Great Recession. Regardless of what cheerleading the media may be doing about the economy - most folks are now cautious on discretionary spending - of which, restaurant visits - even to a degree Fast Food restaurant visits - has been impacted. 

 In alphabetical order:

Arby’s - I `responded’ to the ads for the `Roast Burger’ earlier in the year and was not impressed. I refused to respond to the Marry a Goat `humor’  ad campaign and somewhat like the recent 5.01 combo or pricing (the one cent being for Quality).  That said, generally, I perceive that Arby’s as expensive without having coupons from the coupon mail drop a few times a year. Additionally, they  `streamlined’ their `fries’ - dropping my favorite the Homestyle. How can they NOT promote the Jamoca Shake?

Atlanta Bread Company (ABC) - Remodeled nicely. Upgraded to real plates and silverware. Messy to clean up. Can be crowded and slow service. Female favorite. Good soups and combo prices. Mellow atmosphere.

Burger Inn - Local  legend - all fresh cooked. Great breakfast customer base. Friendly people; newspapers available often. Excellent onion rings. Beefy hamburgers. Male favorite.

Burger King - I like the current billboard promotion about the Double Cheeseburger for a buck, real value - but - haven’t gotten it.  I have ordered the Mini burgers more than once however and view that as an excellent addition. Amazingly, the Woodstock BK got rid of Real Sweet Tea years ago (my assumption is that is still the case) and thereby nearly ended my usage — I can’t stand the fake sweet tea out of a machine. Operations should be aware that changing ICONic drinks can have a big effect. — Finally, where is the KING?

Capt. D’s - Perhaps my favorite FF in Woodstock. Quality, Quick, and Quantity with good value pricing. Covers all reasonable price points including lunch specials and on-going `specialities’ that have all prices. Excellent choice of sides. Funny ads earlier in the year comparing to Red Lobster pricing. Friendly greeting and thanking when exiting. Good inside music.

Checkers - Still a viable concept (double drive thru) - chicken wings were a good addition earlier in year - somehow it fits. Catchy phrase “you gotta eat” recognizable for smaller chain levels of advertising. Covers all price points well with a good mix of products. The Woodstock store does Sunday Pricing - good idea - hasn’t ever motivated me for their `down sized’ versions. Could probably `play-up’ the FUN theme a little bit more.

Chick-Fil-A - Woodstock’s Chick-Fil-A is amazingly busy. Overwhelmingly busy whenever they do a promotion like 2-1 for a chicken sandwich or free food giveaway. Excellent quick service regardless of how long the lines are - especially at the drive-thru. (However, I’ve detected a time or two a usage of `workers in India’ taking my orders — I’m not kidding - and, in this time of underemployment in America - that is NOT right to save a few cents that way.) Real Milk Shakes were genius. Consistent quality. Friendly employees. Clean. ————— All that said, the Woodstock inside service in the sit-down area can be horrid and when is Chick-Fil-A gonna get some normal fries? Also, one takes a chance when getting the baked potato.

Dairy Queen -  The standard in Ice Cream desserts from the drive-thru. Haven’t used but really like the new pricing structure in ads 2/3 3/4 4/5.00 - interesting approach. Unfortunately, for me, the food hasn’t broke thru.

Dunkin Donuts - Right on the Strip - I’ve never used location. Certainly they can advertise donuts and donut prices more.  (IF I knew a quick Donut sweet was 99 cents for example - it would come to mind for `dessert’ or breakfast purchase more often. Never seen a place less concerned with establishing a price point understanding. Just how much does a dozen donuts cost?)

Firehouse Subs - Expensive but Excellent. Can be slow. Friendly employees. TV’s to watch. Good real sweet tea. Small, can be crowded.

Five Guys Hamburgers - Tangential to Woodstock in Sandy Plains area — good operation - waiting for a Woodstock Location (several good places available perhaps too).

IHOP - Expensive, right? What specials?

KFC - Closed but not forgotten. Also was one, like BK, to drop sweet tea for a time.

Krystal’s - Krystal `fix’ a must a few times a year. (Canton Road.) Ad’s featuring Crispy Onions on burger looks very compelling. Wi-Fi add - good idea.

McDonald’s - Woodstocks unit re-designs and updates the interiour often - which is nice. Clean. Service can range from excellent to very poor (weekends). Can often find an AJC or USA today in newspaper bin. Separate kids area - thumbs up. Fries can vary in quality. Best FF fish sandwich.

New China Buffet - Lunch value leader. Good quality food. Friendly employees. Priced by the pound to go. Widest variety of food.

O’Charlies - Stopped going shortly after changed menu restricting Prime Rib to Sundays only.

Panda Express - Have never used. Pass by back of lot 3 times a week on way to Walmart.

Po Folks - AKA Folks —> Expesive for what you get.

Ruby Tuesday’s — How could they get rid of German Potato Salad? (pet peeve). Good miniburgers and platter pricing. Easy to split orders. Great salad bar still.

Sonic - I really like their ad’s inside the car with the main guy and his friend and the main guy and his wife. Classic. Best onion rings in Woodstock at FF. To me, tasteless burgers. Fun to use. Daypart pricing on drinks in the afternoon. Fun music playing.

Steak And Shake -  Best Milkshake in Woodstock. Can be very expensive without coupons and very reasonable with coupons. Great variety of sides. Great music inside.

Subway - Good with pricing with coupons. Good quality. Can be SLOW service. GOOD real sweet tea. Fresh. Daily specials a good way to address pricing. Excellent variety of sandwiches.

Taco Bell - Good cheap price positioning. Good Chalupa’s. Good real sweet tea. Good service speed. Good quality overall.

Wendy’s - Huge variety in quality - excellent one time - poorish the next. What the heck happened to the fries - almost tasteless compared to yesteryear. I’m told good salads. Expensiveish compared to McD’s. Baked potato good price/quality.

Thanks for reading - feel free to comment.

Here’s some links also:

KFC Closes Its Doors to Fight Hunger - http://www.slashfood.com/2009/09/30/kfc-closes-its-doors-to-fight-hunger/?icid=main|htmlws-main|dl5|link6|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.slashfood.com%2F2009%2F09%2F30%2Fkfc-closes-its-doors-to-fight-hunger%2F Community involvemet matters - look at the results of the survey on this page too.

A Real Whopper? NASCAR’s Stewart to take live polygraph test in ad  - http://www.walletpop.com/blog/2009/09/30/a-real-whopper-nascars-stewart-to-take-live-polygraph-test-in//?icid=main|htmlws-main|dl1|link5|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.walletpop.com%2Fblog%2F2009%2F09%2F30%2Fa-real-whopper-nascars-stewart-to-take-live-polygraph-test-in%2F%2F BK, attention grabber again.

Eat, drink, and spend money: Restaurants ply diners with cheap booze - http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/09/29/eat-drink-and-spend-money-restaurants-ply-diners-with-cheap-b/#continued?icid=main|htmlws-main|dl3|link3|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailyfinance.com%2F2009%2F09%2F29%2Feat-drink-and-spend-money-restaurants-ply-diners-with-cheap-b%2F%23continued

The other day RBC Capital Markets released the results of a monthly tracking survey of interest to the restaurant industry - here’s the link - http://www.nrn.com/breakingNews.aspx?id=365256. As a market researcher, perhaps most interesting - to me - was the headline “Restaurants May See Diners Spending More”. This statement was, of course, seemingly backed up by the results of the survey - but, really folks, it’s time to be a little more realistic and accurate about `survey results’. (That said, the title doesn’t over promise - just spins non convincing data.)

The `facts’ to support the headline were gathered from the survey with a sample of over 2,700 respondents - and the survey showed an `increase’ - from 5% to 6% -  in the percentage of people who said they were planning to spend more at restaurants over the next three months. The key fact in support of the headline.

So, you mean that as we come into summer, and vacations, that the sliver of folks who take these surveys to heart and wording at its true meaning - might realize - that because of `vacation’ and not being home as much (or substitute the end of being cooped up because of winter weather) - that they `plan’ on `more’ restaurant purchases in the next three months? And, THAT, is what we are to be encouraged by?

Oh, please.

(And, what if last months survey results were 5.4% rounded to 5% and this months was 5.6% rounded to 6%. Even with a sample of 2,700 it’s hard to point to hard evidence with a 1% point move.)

Also, the survey indicates just how `the down’ sentiment and usage of restaurants has been - via the poll. And, supposedly, this also has `glimmers of hope’(?) - in that data - compared to the previous month - this months survey showed that the % of people who say that they are planning on eating less at restaurants in the next three months `dropped’ from 50% to 44% - and, indeed, that looks like good news - until you think deeper about it.

The obvious first — 44%, nearly half of your customers are still trying to cut back on their restaurant usage - a nearly record high number probably.

If this survey is `rolling’ - theoretically - each month - 1/3 of the sample is `doing’ the effect of the `answer’ from the previous month (meaning the folks of three months ago who said `eating less’ - will have - three months later - adopted a lower frequency level) - and when - `re-interviewed’ (theoritically three months later) would be at that `new level’.

Let me explain more. ———- If three months ago 50% anticipated (planned) on eating `less’ at restaurants — one would expect that they indeed cut back to a new level — which the restaurant owner — hopes they DON’T decrease again — hoping that they are now going to answer to such a hypothetical question “about the same (reduced) level” — one certainly - doesn’t hope for those folks - who already reduced their level of restaurant usage to be saying “I’m going to be reducing it more”.

Further, if 6% fewer people are saying they will be reducing their restaurant usage - why did only 1%  (1/6th of that sample) move into `increasing’? Could it be that those 6% are doing exactly as I say above — finding a new `minimal’ leveling off of their own restaurant usage - while others are STILL reducing?

Honestly, one would have to be `creative’ to say the new poll is good news. To me, IMO, as a research analyst, it seems to reflect the `New Normal’ - which is establishing a reduced level of restaurant usage into the future - more and more.

Not only that,  the poll goes on to talk about other economic numbers they crunch that also seem to reflect a `bottoming’ if not an outright `surge’ in consumer optimism. Yes, a surge.

All I can say is - Really? In a worsening job market? In which, the worst on the employment side of our Great Recession  is yet to come? Is that a believable number or is something going on in even the asking of the question and the nations dynamics.

Or, is this consumer number reflective of something else - like new loyalty to a new very different president - more of a hope than anything else. And, indeed, the 38% confidence number (it’s not really called a confidence number but is a roll up of similar characteristics) - up from an 8% reading the month before (do things economically seem 4 times better to you in the last 30 days?) — and, this percentage (38) is strikingly similar to the true hard core percentage of Democrat loyalties and percentages.

And, the poll, in March, after Obama was dissed in the press for being `negative’ and `too realistic’ about our economy in February (when the poll bottomed) - found Obama, in March - being `positive’ with his rhetoric (responding to the critics in Feb.) - indeed, much more-so - (do you remember the change in tone).

And, I bet, the result seen in this survey, was this supposed `huge surge’ in confidence. (The market was also in a bear bounce in March.) Indeed, if such confidence had really returned - the `more often’ number on the planning to eat out more in the next three months - would have spiked too. And, it didn’t.

Finally, I encourage you to look at this incredible visual map of the job losses that have hit each of the 3,000 counties in America - again, this map - which shows the change from job gain to job loss from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2009 — will leave your head spinning - and in dis-belief — that a surge in confidence is already underway. http://slate.com/id/2216238/

Thanks for visiting today - make a point to read my best posts of 2008 right here http://restauranttradearearesearch.com/important-posts-in-2008/ – and, please visit my Squidoo page too at www.squidoo.com/tradeareasurveys- to learn much more about the research I most suggest to restaurant owners - the MarketView.

As far as the Woodstock Georgia fast food market is concerned  - restaurants continue to be under competitive pressures with strong discounting and `new and interesting’ promotions to offset the continued shrinking of customer bases. Indeed, just recently, ABC - the Atlanta Bread Company in Woodstock had a Sunday evening `Murder theater’ (with actors of course) near closing time for which tickets at 10.00 per head were sold. These `patrons’ would have an additional chance to purchase food and dessert from the unit too - for enjoyment when watching the play.

And, the discounting continues at all levels from Waffle Houses 4.99 meals, to 4.00 KFC meals, to 99 cent Dunkin Donut specials, to the buck level at Checkers, Wendy’s and — whatever special Arby’s has going at a various promotion period. In the nearby Sandy Plains/Shallowford area the Boston Market was doing bounce back coupons for buy one meal - get one meal —— that’s up to a 6.99 value — (and one our family took advantage of) and up to 50% off. And, within the past month, Arby’s was giving the `RoastBurger’ away with the purchase of a drink (& Quizno’s also gave away it’s small sandwich.)

Couple all this with promotions from the last posting - many of which are still going on in one form or another (including daypart pricing) - and you have a very sensitive price market the likes of which haven’t been seen in a long long time, if ever. Increasingly, `eating out’ is positioned by the media as the one way that Americans are cutting back and saving money. And, again increasingly, the eating out `habit’ is being broken at some level.

Indeed, the extreme multi times a week users (4+ times a week)  - while usually not  a huge element in most fast foods - is largely gone - as these hardest regulars have become part of the once a week users - generally. And, while most of the two times a week or once a week users have hung on in most circumstances - especially in white collar, lunch oriented restaurants - those users are probably most reduced in the evening timeframes.

Probably most affected frequency wise in customer bases are the occasional once a month type users - who have often fallen into the `never use anymore’ or seldom use category - as consumers tighten up into their most favorite choices. NEW customers, once a mainstay at 3-8% of all fast food customers is again - almost nil. (Why waste precious money on places without a proven track record?)

So, with all this - with restaurants of all kinds closing (which does help others who survive in degrees) - with frequency rates dropping - with price pressures at every turn - the question must be asked if this is the bottom to be endured - or - a new normal? (No one wants to think it could be worse - and indeed - as competition closes - the `replacement effect’ of the `new meal occasions’ to be filled in the local market - will modify - to a degree - further downturns.)

Indeed, if the downturn continues for much longer - say - another year (an overly negative view compared to consensus) - we could see some companies go to a more innovative way of pricing their food products. Perhaps combos will once again reflect a real `savings’ as opposed to an easy way to order in a few words. Perhaps we will see the drive thru priced in a different manner - compared to inside customers. Perhaps drinks will become cheaper at the drive-thru (as no re-fills occur).

Indeed, perhaps we will see `customer loyalty’ cards be set at effective levels - buy two combos get one free - for example —- as opposed to cards that required too many uses to motivate a customer base. Or, even `in-store’ contests to motivate the bigger instore spender - or - targeting the very largest purchasers (only) with a `discount’ on that next purchase (setting the level at transactions in the highest 5% total) - showing recognition of these remaining `special’ customers.

Because, as Dylan said, the times,  they are a changin - and, previous practices and marketing approaches - especially if they all sound the same - may have little useful effect. It may take new approaches and new ideas of consumerism to survive to the other side of the downturn - and - it’s not too early to begin to consider such ideas.